Jerry & Pam
The Long-Time Homeowner
Has housing stability and often substantial home equity, but is likely watching their kids and grandkids get priced out of the city, splitting up families.
Drop in births in LA County, 1990 to 2024 (about 209,000 to 90,000 a year)
LAUSD enrollment, 2003–04 to 2025–26 (747,000 to 497,000 students)
Projected share of LA residents under 18 by 2060, down from 20.5% in 2020
LA’s grandchild shortage
Births per year. US births are scaled to LA's 1990 level so the two trends can be compared on one axis.
Nationally, births fell about 13% from 1990 to 2024. In LA County they fell 56%. Some families who would have raised children here are raising them somewhere else, and many who stay are waiting longer to have kids or having fewer of them.
Sources: LA County births from the California Health and Human Services Open Data Portal, Live Birth Profiles by County. US births from NCBI Bookshelf (NBK617829).
Fewer kids in the classroom
LAUSD K–12 enrollment by school year
Source: Ed-Data, Los Angeles Unified enrollment.
An aging county
Every 100 LA residents, by age
In 2000, children outnumbered residents over 60 about two to one. By 2060 that is projected to flip: residents over 60 will outnumber children more than two to one.
Sources: 2000 and 2020 from American Community Survey data. 2060 projections from the California Master Plan for Aging, Data Dashboard and MPA Demographics (Tableau), as updated by Los Angeles County in its March 20, 2024 Family & Social Services agenda review materials.
Laura
The Aspiring Homeowner
Works and saves, but finds starter homes increasingly out of reach and may delay starting a family or putting down roots in a community.
Homeownership is slipping away from young adults
Share of adults who own their home, 1980, 2000 and 2021
Ages 25–35
Ages 35–45
Source: Shoag, Romem & Garcia, Terner Center for Housing Innovation, California’s Sliding Homeownership Ladder (2023), using 1980/2000 Census and 2021 ACS data.
Owning comes later in California
Homeowner age of prevalence: the age at which owning a home becomes the norm
In 1980 a Californian typically owned by 32. By 2021 it was 49, twelve years later than in Texas or Virginia.
Source: Shoag, Romem & Garcia, Terner Center for Housing Innovation, California’s Sliding Homeownership Ladder (2023), using 1980/2000 Census and 2021 ACS data.
What does 5× median income buy?
Two real listings at about five times local median income
The LA-area buyer pays more for a third of the space, older construction, weaker schools and an HOA five times higher.
Source: Zillow listings, Sugar Land and Long Beach.
Jorge & Mayra
The Burdened Renter
Has a home, but rent consumes too much income, leaving little room for savings. It can lead to overcrowding or to leaving the state.
Overcrowding
Share of households with more than one person per room (bedrooms, kitchen, living room). Each square is 1% of households.
LA County households are overcrowded at roughly three times the national rate. In Pico-Union it's one household in three.
Source: American Community Survey 2020–2024 5-year estimates (United States, Los Angeles County).
Are there enough bedrooms?
Bedrooms in occupied homes for every 100 bedrooms a household-size model says people need. Below 100 means a shortfall. Select a place to see the math.
Source: Andrew Berg, yimsr.andrewtberg.com spare-bedroom estimates, with margins of error as reported.
Losing affordable homes faster than we build them
California, units per year (thousands, as charted)
Every year California loses naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH): older, unsubsidized homes with modest rents. When homes are scarce, landlords can raise rents, and these units stop being affordable. Each year more are lost than new affordable units are built.
Source: California Housing Partnership
Who leaves California
Net interstate migration, ages 20–64, by education
Most of the losses are among adults without a college degree, the workers most squeezed by rent.
Source: PPIC, Who’s Leaving California—and Who’s Moving In? Values read from PPIC’s chart.
Dan
Deep Housing Insecurity
Pays the vast majority of income on housing, or may be couch-surfing, staying in a spare room, living in unsafe conditions, or experiencing homelessness.
The continuum of housing insecurity
Modeled estimate of people in LA County at each level, from rent-burdened to long-term homeless
The people counted on a single night are the visible tip. More than 2 million Angelenos spend half their income on housing, and any one of them is a job loss or rent hike from the next level down.
Note: Figures are estimates based on American Community Survey data, drawing on work by the Economic Roundtable (Excelling for the 2028 Olympics; Escape Routes) and UCLA (Homelessness report). Numbers are midpoints of estimated ranges and are not meant to be taken as exact.
2025 rates of homelessness
People experiencing homelessness per 10,000 residents
Source: 2025 HUD/local Point-in-Time homelessness counts; U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population estimates. LA = Los Angeles County; Houston = Harris, Fort Bend & Montgomery counties; Phoenix = Maricopa County. PIT counts are one-night estimates and geographic coverage varies by Continuum of Care.
What ties the four together
Where homes cost more relative to income, more people end up without one
Across 366 Continuums of Care, the ratio of home prices to incomes explains about 75% of the variation in homelessness rates. The effect climbs steeply once prices pass five times income. Los Angeles, the largest bubble, sits deep in the extreme zone.
Homelessness vs. price-to-income, 2019–2023
Each bubble is a Continuum of Care, sized by population. Hover for details, click to highlight.
Dashed line: population-weighted trend (R² = 0.75); shaded band is ±1 standard deviation. Source: AEI Housing Center, Good Neighbor Index, using 2019–2023 5-year American Community Survey, HUD Annual Homeless Assessment Report, and BLS QCEW data.